Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pasto

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Nacional

C. Amaya 3' (pen)

Y. Candelo 62'

Carlos Bejarano 16' (OG)

9/21/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal de Ipiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Pasto37%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.99

Deportivo Pasto

1.08

Atletico Nacional

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

0.84

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

Atletico Nacional

1.10

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

67%

Deportivo Pasto or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

37%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

33%

Deportivo Pasto at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Ceppelini

Atletico Nacional · M

7.2

Match Events

3'

C. AmayaPenalty

16'

Carlos BejaranoOwn goal

17'

Carlos Bejarano

20'

Camilo Ayala

25'

W. De La Rosa← C. Amaya

41'

Ray Vanegas

50'

Andrey Estupinan

56'

B. Perlaza← A. Reyes

57'

F. Bolo← D. Hernández

62'

Y. Candelo↳ B. Perlaza

63'

H. Barcos← P. Cucchi

77'

S. Gómez← J. Barrera

79'

C. Hidalgo← R. Vanegas

88'

Pablo Ceppelini

90'

José Cuadrado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots6

2Corners2

22Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target3

7Off Target3

3Blocked0

4Inside Box4

10Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

268Total Passes394

189Accurate Passes313

71%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3