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Deportivo Pasto vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
4/22/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 15Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Deportivo Pasto45%
×Draw29%
Águilas Doradas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.28
Águilas Doradas
0.91

Deportivo Pasto creates 41% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 170 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.26
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
0.85
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
74%
Deportivo Pasto or Águilas Doradas
71%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
21%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
14%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
60%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
23%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
63%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
45%
level
29%
Águilas Doradas scores more
26%

Deportivo Pasto at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 0–0 Águilas Doradas

Deportivo Pasto and Águilas Doradas drew 0-0 in Primera A on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.