Deportivo Ocotal 1–3 H&H Export: Result & Stats

Deportivo Ocotal

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

H&H Export

L. Tercero 81'

B. Zúniga 57'

R. Granja 38'

M. Pucharella 26'

9/14/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 8Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal48%

×Draw26%

H&H Export26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo OcotalExpected goals in this matchH&H Export

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.06

Deportivo Ocotal

1.54

H&H Export

1.06

Deportivo Ocotal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 97 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

1.05

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.21

H&H Export

1.07

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.05

H&H Export

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

H&H Export+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

H&H Export →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw

74%

Deportivo Ocotal or H&H Export

74%

Draw or H&H Export

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

25%

H&H Export wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

45%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

20%

H&H Export 1+ goals

65%

H&H Export 2+ goals

29%

H&H Export 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

65%

H&H Export (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 109 matches

H&H Export away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.21 + H&H Export defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

H&H Export attack 1.07 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

48%

level

26%

H&H Export scores more

26%

Deportivo Ocotal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Ocotal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Pucharella

38'

R. Granja

46'

B. García← Cristiano

46'

J. Carvajal← J. Morales

57'

B. Zúniga

60'

J. Mairena← N. Cuadra

60'

R. Molina← C. Roque

71'

J. Rivera← D. Castrillón

71'

Marvin Pérez← M. Pucharella

81'

L. Tercero

83'

J. Armelo← B. Zúniga

83'

J. Cornejo← U. Pozo

83'

N. Jirón← A. Velásquez

Deportivo

H&H

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. López

46'▲B. García←▼Cristiano

46'▲J. Carvajal←▼J. Morales

60'▲J. Mairena←▼N. Cuadra

60'▲R. Molina←▼C. Roque

Deportivo Ocotal substitutes

GarcíaCarvajalMairenaMolinaFloresGarcíaRivas

Manager: S. Rodriguez

71'▲J. Rivera←▼D. Castrillón

71'▲Marvin Pérez←▼M. Pucharella

83'▲J. Armelo←▼B. Zúniga

83'▲J. Cornejo←▼U. Pozo

83'▲N. Jirón←▼A. Velásquez

H&H Export substitutes

RiveraPérezArmeloCornejoJirónMartínezPalaciosPadillaPalacios

Match Recap: Deportivo Ocotal vs H&H Export

H&H Export beat Deportivo Ocotal 3-1 in Primera Division on September 14, 2023.

Goals: M. Pucharella (26'), R. Granja (38'), B. Zúniga (57'), L. Tercero (81').

The match was played at Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez in Ocotal.

Deportivo Ocotal vs H&H Export — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Ocotal vs H&H Export