Deportivo Municipal 0–1 Sporting Cristal

Deportivo Municipal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Cristal

6/2/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Municipal31%

×Draw25%

Sporting Cristal43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.49

Deportivo Municipal

1.23

Sporting Cristal

1.49

Sporting Cristal creates 21% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 156 away

1.24

creates per match

1.79

1.19

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Sporting Cristal

1.79

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Sporting Cristal

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

57%

Deportivo Municipal or Sporting Cristal

75%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

13%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

13%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

77%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

42%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

31%

level

25%

Sporting Cristal scores more

43%

Sporting Cristal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Sporting Cristal

Sporting Cristal beat Deportivo Municipal 1-0 in Primera División on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.

Deportivo Municipal vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Sporting Cristal