Deportivo Municipal 2–2 Sport Huancayo

Deportivo Municipal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Huancayo

3/10/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Municipal43%

×Draw27%

Sport Huancayo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.12

Deportivo Municipal

1.37

Sport Huancayo

1.12

Deportivo Municipal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 147 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.19

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Sport Huancayo

1.05

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Sport Huancayo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

69%

Deportivo Municipal or Sport Huancayo

73%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

20%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

16%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

67%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

31%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

58%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

43%

level

27%

Sport Huancayo scores more

31%

Deportivo Municipal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff