Deportivo Municipal 3–1 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Deportivo Municipal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Boys

3/24/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Municipal48%

×Draw26%

Sport Boys26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Deportivo Municipal

1.50

Sport Boys

1.02

Deportivo Municipal creates 47% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 145 away

1.24

creates per match

0.86

1.19

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Sport Boys

0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Sport Boys

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

74%

Deportivo Municipal or Sport Boys

74%

Draw or Sport Boys

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

24%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

19%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

64%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

27%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

65%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

48%

level

26%

Sport Boys scores more

26%

Deportivo Municipal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff