Deportivo Municipal 1–1 Carlos A. Mannucci

Deportivo Municipal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Carlos A. Mannucci

6/8/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Segundo Aranda Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Deportivo Municipal43%

×Draw26%

Carlos A. Mannucci31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchCarlos A. Mannucci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Deportivo Municipal

1.42

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.17

Deportivo Municipal creates 21% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 95 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

69%

Deportivo Municipal or Carlos A. Mannucci

74%

Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

20%

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

17%

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

69%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

33%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

58%

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.16 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

43%

level

26%

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

31%

Deportivo Municipal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Carlos A. Mannucci

Deportivo Municipal and Carlos A. Mannucci drew 1-1 in Primera División on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Segundo Aranda Torres in Huacho.

Deportivo Municipal vs Carlos A. Mannucci — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Carlos A. Mannucci