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Deportivo Moron vs Defensores De Belgrano — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Defensores De Belgrano
Defensores De Belgrano
2/18/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Deportivo Moron40%
×Draw32%
Defensores De Belgrano28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.04
Defensores De Belgrano
0.82

Deportivo Moron creates 27% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.15
Defensores De Belgrano
0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.69
Defensores De Belgrano
0.93

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Defensores De Belgrano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
72%
Deportivo Moron or Defensores De Belgrano
68%
Draw or Defensores De Belgrano
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
16%
Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
9%
Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals
56%
Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals
20%
Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
59%
Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 130 matches

Defensores De Belgrano away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.93 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.15 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.95 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
40%
level
32%
Defensores De Belgrano scores more
28%

Deportivo Moron at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Moron vs Defensores De Belgrano

Defensores De Belgrano beat Deportivo Moron 4-0 in Primera Nacional on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.