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Deportivo Moron vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
Preview
20:00
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
10/31/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 36Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano
41%
Deportivo Moron
model favours
41%34%25%
0–0
likely score
77%
under 2.5 goals
30%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Moron41%
×Draw34%
Ciudad de Bolívar25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
0.96
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.68

Deportivo Moron creates 41% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.42
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.80

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.56
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.50

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
75%
Deportivo Moron or Ciudad de Bolívar
66%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
15%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
7%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
49%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
15%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
62%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.56 · 36 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.42 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.80 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
41%
level
34%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
25%

Deportivo Moron at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Moron
DLLWW
Bolívar
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Moron face Ciudad de Bolívar (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Deportivo Moron hosting Ciudad de Bolívar. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Moron host Ciudad de Bolívar at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.