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Deportivo Madryn vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sansinena
Sansinena
11/3/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 11Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportivo Madryn55%
×Draw28%
Sansinena18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
1.40
Sansinena
0.66

Deportivo Madryn creates 112% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.51
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.56
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
82%
Deportivo Madryn or Sansinena
72%
Draw or Sansinena
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
27%
Sansinena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
17%
Sansinena 1+ goals
48%
Sansinena 2+ goals
14%
Sansinena 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
76%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.51 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
55%
level
28%
Sansinena scores more
18%

Deportivo Madryn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Madryn vs Sansinena

Deportivo Madryn and Sansinena drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut).