Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Madryn vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
Preview
20:00
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
9/5/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 28Estadio Abel Sastre
40%
Deportivo Madryn
model favours
40%34%27%

Deportivo Madryn score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
75%
under 2.5 goals
32%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Madryn40%
×Draw34%
Ciudad de Bolívar27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
0.97
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.74

Deportivo Madryn creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.45
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.80

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.67
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.50

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
73%
Deportivo Madryn or Ciudad de Bolívar
66%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
15%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
7%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
52%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
17%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
60%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.45 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.80 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
40%
level
34%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
27%

Deportivo Madryn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Deportivo Madryn’s matches
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Madryn
DLWDD
Bolívar
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Madryn face Ciudad de Bolívar (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Deportivo Madryn hosting Ciudad de Bolívar. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Madryn host Ciudad de Bolívar at Estadio Abel Sastre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.