Deportivo Llacuabamba 2–1 Carlos Stein

Deportivo Llacuabamba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carlos Stein

8/5/2021

Segunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba68%

×Draw18%

Carlos Stein15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LlacuabambaExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.02

Deportivo Llacuabamba

2.40

Carlos Stein

1.02

Deportivo Llacuabamba creates 135% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

2.00

creates per match

1.09

0.94

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba

2.00

Carlos Stein

1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba

0.94

Carlos Stein

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw

85%

Deportivo Llacuabamba or Carlos Stein

82%

Draw or Carlos Stein

32%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+

45%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals

91%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals

69%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals

42%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

64%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

27%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)

82%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 2.00 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.40

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more

68%

level

18%

Carlos Stein scores more

15%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff