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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
PST
23:00
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
11/7/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba41%
×Draw24%
Carlos Stein35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.59
Carlos Stein
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.27
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
65%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or Carlos Stein
76%
Draw or Carlos Stein
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
20%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
21%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
77%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
43%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
54%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.27 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.59

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
41%
level
24%
Carlos Stein scores more
35%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Carlos Stein — Match Preview

Deportivo Llacuabamba face Carlos Stein on November 7, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.