Deportivo Lara 1–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Deportivo Lara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo La Guaira

5/23/2021

Primera División · Round 6Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Deportivo Lara43%

×Draw28%

Deportivo La Guaira30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LaraExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.05

Deportivo Lara

1.32

Deportivo La Guaira

1.05

Deportivo Lara creates 26% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 148 away

1.45

creates per match

1.22

0.88

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Deportivo Lara

1.45

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Lara

0.88

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Lara ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Lara or draw

70%

Deportivo Lara or Deportivo La Guaira

72%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Lara 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Lara 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Lara at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Lara attack 1.45 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Deportivo Lara defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Lara scores more

43%

level

28%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

30%

Deportivo Lara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Lara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff