Deportivo Laferrere 2–1 Deportivo Armenio

Deportivo Laferrere

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Armenio

2/17/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 3Estadio Deportivo Laferrere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deportivo Laferrere34%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Armenio35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LaferrereExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Armenio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.04

Deportivo Laferrere

1.02

Deportivo Armenio

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 125 away

1.11

creates per match

0.99

1.08

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Deportivo Laferrere

1.11

Deportivo Armenio

0.99

allows per match

Deportivo Laferrere

1.08

Deportivo Armenio

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Laferrere ↓

Deportivo Armenio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Laferrere or draw

65%

Deportivo Laferrere or Deportivo Armenio

70%

Draw or Deportivo Armenio

66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+

13%

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)

49%

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Laferrere at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Laferrere attack 1.11 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Deportivo Armenio attack 0.99 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Deportivo Laferrere scores more

34%

level

30%

Deportivo Armenio scores more

35%

Deportivo Armenio at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff