Deportivo La Guaira 0–1 UCV: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCV

5/21/2025

Primera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira48%

×Draw27%

UCV26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchUCV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.98

Deportivo La Guaira

1.44

UCV

0.98

Deportivo La Guaira creates 47% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 84 away

1.49

creates per match

1.06

0.89

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.49

UCV

1.06

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.89

UCV

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

UCV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

74%

Deportivo La Guaira or UCV

73%

Draw or UCV

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

23%

UCV wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

18%

UCV 1+ goals

62%

UCV 2+ goals

26%

UCV 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

65%

UCV (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

UCV away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + UCV defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

UCV attack 1.06 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

48%

level

27%

UCV scores more

26%

Deportivo La Guaira at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV

UCV beat Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 in Primera División on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.

Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV