Deportivo La Guaira vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 143+ matches
Deportivo La Guaira45%
Puerto Cabello27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo La Guaira creates 38% more chances
Season form · 150 home / 143 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo La Guaira ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches
Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32
Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Deportivo La Guaira at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Deportivo Tachira FC
Caracas FC
Llaneros de GuanareReal Esppor Club
Trujillanos FC
Deportivo Lara
Aragua FC
Metropolitanos FC
Mineros de GuyanaPuerto Cabello
Portuguesa FC
Zamora FC
Carabobo FC
Zulia FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes Caracas
Lala FC
Monagas SC
Atletico Venezuela
Deportivo AnzoateguiCarabobo FCCaracas FCMineros de GuyanaEstudiantes de Merida FCAragua FCZamora FCZulia FCAtletico VenezuelaDeportivo Tachira FCReal Esppor ClubPuerto CabelloMetropolitanos FCMonagas SCDeportivo LaraLala FCEstudiantes CaracasPortuguesa FCLlaneros de GuanareTrujillanos FCDeportivo AnzoateguiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo La Guaira host Puerto Cabello on Saturday, 18 September 2021 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Primera División: Deportivo La Guaira 0–0 Puerto Cabello
Deportivo La Guaira and Puerto Cabello drew 0-0 in Primera División on September 18, 2021.
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.