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Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
11/29/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Group A - 14Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira49%
×Draw26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.53
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.04

Deportivo La Guaira creates 47% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 138 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
74%
Deportivo La Guaira or Estudiantes de Merida FC
74%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
20%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
65%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
28%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
65%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
49%
level
26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
26%

Deportivo La Guaira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo La Guaira 1–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC

Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.