Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo La Guaira vs Deportivo Lara — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Lara
Deportivo Lara
7/9/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira43%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Lara29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.29
Deportivo Lara
0.99

Deportivo La Guaira creates 30% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 88 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Deportivo Lara
1.08

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Deportivo Lara
1.09

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Deportivo Lara+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Deportivo Lara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
71%
Deportivo La Guaira or Deportivo Lara
72%
Draw or Deportivo Lara
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Lara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Lara 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Lara 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Lara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Deportivo Lara away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Deportivo Lara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo Lara attack 1.08 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportivo Lara scores more
29%

Deportivo La Guaira at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Guaira vs Deportivo Lara

Deportivo La Guaira beat Deportivo Lara 4-1 in Primera División on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.