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Deportivo La Guaira vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
3/19/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira50%
×Draw26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.48
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.94

Deportivo La Guaira creates 57% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 64 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
76%
Deportivo La Guaira or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
74%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
61%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
67%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
50%
level
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
24%

Deportivo La Guaira at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Guaira vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Deportivo La Guaira beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2-0 in Primera División on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.