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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 3Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II53%
×Draw25%
Rápido Bouzas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.60
Rápido Bouzas
0.93

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 75 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.97
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
0.73
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw
78%
Deportivo La Coruña II or Rápido Bouzas
75%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
28%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
22%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
61%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
24%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
71%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
53%
level
25%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
22%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruña II 1 – 1 Rápido Bouzas

Deportivo La Coruña II and Rápido Bouzas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.