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Deportivo JBL del Zulia vs Urena SC — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
FT
1 – 0
Urena SC
Urena SC
4/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia39%
×Draw25%
Urena SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.50
Urena SC
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 115 away

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.42
Urena SC
1.28

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.60
Urena SC
1.57

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par
Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

Urena SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw
64%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia or Urena SC
75%
Draw or Urena SC
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
19%
Urena SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
19%
Urena SC 1+ goals
76%
Urena SC 2+ goals
42%
Urena SC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
52%
Urena SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Urena SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.57 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + Urena SC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Urena SC attack 1.28 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
39%
level
25%
Urena SC scores more
36%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo JBL del Zulia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1 – 0 Urena SC

Deportivo JBL del Zulia beat Urena SC 1-0 in Segunda División on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).