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Deportivo JBL del Zulia vs ULA FC — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
FT
1 – 0
ULA FC
ULA FC
3/30/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia39%
×Draw25%
ULA FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.48
ULA FC
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 53 away

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.42
ULA FC
1.23

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.60
ULA FC
1.55

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par
ULA FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

ULA FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw
64%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia or ULA FC
75%
Draw or ULA FC
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
19%
ULA FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
19%
ULA FC 1+ goals
76%
ULA FC 2+ goals
41%
ULA FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
52%
ULA FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

ULA FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + ULA FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

ULA FC attack 1.23 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
39%
level
25%
ULA FC scores more
36%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo JBL del Zulia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1 – 0 ULA FC

Deportivo JBL del Zulia beat ULA FC 1-0 in Segunda División on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).