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Deportivo Español vs Claypole — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Español
Deportivo Español
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Claypole
Claypole
3/8/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 6Estadio Nueva España

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Deportivo Español40%
×Draw30%
Claypole30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Español
1.11
Claypole
0.91

Deportivo Español creates 22% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 106 away

creates per match

Deportivo Español
1.22
Claypole
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Español
0.86
Claypole
1.01

finishing

Deportivo Español+0.00on par
Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Español ↓

Claypole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Español or draw
70%
Deportivo Español or Claypole
70%
Draw or Claypole
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Español wins by 2+
16%
Claypole wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Español 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Español 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Español 3+ goals
10%
Claypole 1+ goals
60%
Claypole 2+ goals
23%
Claypole 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Español (draw refunded)
57%
Claypole (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Español at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Claypole away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Español attack 1.22 + Claypole defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Claypole attack 0.96 + Deportivo Español defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Español scores more
40%
level
30%
Claypole scores more
30%

Deportivo Español at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Español vs Claypole

Deportivo Español beat Claypole 3-1 in Primera C on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nueva España in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.