Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Sevilla W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

Preview

15:00

Sevilla W

8/30/2026

Primera División Femenina · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Big match

45%

Deportivo de La Coruña W

model favours

45%25%30%

Sevilla W have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W45%

×Draw25%

Sevilla W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo de La Coruña WExpected goals in this matchSevilla W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.25

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.59

Sevilla W

1.25

Deportivo de La Coruña W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 118 away

1.32

creates per match

1.01

1.48

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.32

Sevilla W

1.01

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.48

Sevilla W

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Sevilla W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw

70%

Deportivo de La Coruña W or Sevilla W

75%

Draw or Sevilla W

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

23%

Sevilla W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

21%

Sevilla W 1+ goals

71%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

36%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

60%

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

45%

level

25%

Sevilla W scores more

30%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo de La Coruña W win just 11% against the top half (vs 46% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LDWLD

W

DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff