Deportivo de La Coruña W 0–2 Real Sociedad W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Sociedad W

10/11/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 2Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W34%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo de La Coruña WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.56

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.39

Real Sociedad W

1.56

Real Sociedad W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 119 away

1.32

creates per match

1.65

1.48

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.32

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.48

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw

58%

Deportivo de La Coruña W or Real Sociedad W

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

66%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

15%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

16%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

79%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

46%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

45%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

34%

level

24%

Real Sociedad W scores more

42%

Real Sociedad W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff