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Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
9/13/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Riazor
Big match
55%
Real Madrid W
model favours
22%22%55%

Real Madrid W have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W22%
×Draw22%
Real Madrid W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.12
Real Madrid W
1.89

Real Madrid W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 92 away

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.32
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.48
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw
45%
Deportivo de La Coruña W or Real Madrid W
78%
Draw or Real Madrid W
78%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
8%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
10%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
56%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
29%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
22%
level
22%
Real Madrid W scores more
55%

Real Madrid W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo de La Coruña W win just 11% against the top half (vs 46% against the bottom)
  • Deportivo de La Coruña W sit 12, Real Madrid W 2 in the table
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LDWLD
W
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo de La Coruña W host Real Madrid W

September 13, 2026: Deportivo de La Coruña W take on Real Madrid W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo de La Coruña W host Real Madrid W at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.