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Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Preview
16:00
Granada
Granada
3/21/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 23Estadio Municipal de Riazor
41%
Deportivo de La Coruña W
model favours
41%25%34%

Granada have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W41%
×Draw25%
Granada34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.52
Granada
1.36

Deportivo de La Coruña W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.32
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.48
Granada
1.71

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw
66%
Deportivo de La Coruña W or Granada
75%
Draw or Granada
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
20%
Granada wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
20%
Granada 1+ goals
74%
Granada 2+ goals
39%
Granada 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
55%
Granada (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Granada attack 1.24 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
41%
level
25%
Granada scores more
34%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo de La Coruña W win just 11% against the top half (vs 46% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LDWLD
Granada
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Granada — Match Preview

Deportivo de La Coruña W face Granada on March 21, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo de La Coruña W host Granada at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.