Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Edf Logrono W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

Preview

15:00

Edf Logrono W

5/2/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Riazor

48%

Deportivo de La Coruña W

model favours

48%24%27%

Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W48%

×Draw24%

Edf Logrono W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo de La Coruña WExpected goals in this matchEdf Logrono W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.20

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.67

Edf Logrono W

1.20

Deportivo de La Coruña W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

1.32

creates per match

0.91

1.48

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.32

Edf Logrono W

0.91

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.48

Edf Logrono W

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Edf Logrono W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw

73%

Deportivo de La Coruña W or Edf Logrono W

76%

Draw or Edf Logrono W

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

26%

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

23%

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

70%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

34%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

64%

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.67

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

48%

level

24%

Edf Logrono W scores more

27%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LDWLD

W

LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff