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Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Deportivo Alavés W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Preview
16:00
Deportivo Alavés W
Deportivo Alavés W
10/25/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Riazor
58%
Deportivo de La Coruña W
model favours
58%21%22%

Deportivo de La Coruña W and Deportivo Alavés W have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W58%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Alavés W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo de La Coruña W
2.10
Deportivo Alavés W
1.21

Deportivo de La Coruña W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.32
Deportivo Alavés W
0.93

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.48
Deportivo Alavés W
2.87

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw
78%
Deportivo de La Coruña W or Deportivo Alavés W
79%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés W
42%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
88%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
62%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
35%
Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
73%
Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.10

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
58%
level
21%
Deportivo Alavés W scores more
22%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LDWLD
W
DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo de La Coruña W face Deportivo Alavés W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Deportivo de La Coruña W hosting Deportivo Alavés W. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo de La Coruña W host Deportivo Alavés W at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.