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Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Atletico Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
11/22/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 9Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W26%
×Draw24%
Atletico Madrid W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.17
Atletico Madrid W
1.70

Atletico Madrid W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 118 away

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.32
Atletico Madrid W
1.92

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.48
Atletico Madrid W
1.02

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw
50%
Deportivo de La Coruña W or Atletico Madrid W
76%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
74%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
10%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
51%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
35%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
26%
level
24%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
50%

Atletico Madrid W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Deportivo de La Coruña W 1–8 Atletico Madrid W

Atletico Madrid W beat Deportivo de La Coruña W 8-1 in Primera División Femenina on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.