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Deportivo Cuenca vs Delfin SC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
3/7/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca44%
×Draw24%
Delfin SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.64
Delfin SC
1.36

Deportivo Cuenca creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.60
Delfin SC
1.33

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.40
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
68%
Deportivo Cuenca or Delfin SC
76%
Draw or Delfin SC
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
23%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
49%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
23%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
74%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
39%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
58%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.60 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Delfin SC attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
44%
level
24%
Delfin SC scores more
32%

Deportivo Cuenca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Deportivo Cuenca 2–5 Delfin SC

Delfin SC beat Deportivo Cuenca 5-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.