Deportivo Cuenca 2–3 Delfin SC: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Delfin SC

4/6/2019

Liga Pro · Round 8Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca49%

×Draw29%

Delfin SC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchDelfin SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.76

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

Delfin SC

0.76

Deportivo Cuenca creates 70% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

0.43

1.09

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Delfin SC

0.43

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.09

Delfin SC

1.21

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Delfin SC-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Delfin SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

78%

Deportivo Cuenca or Delfin SC

71%

Draw or Delfin SC

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

23%

Delfin SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

14%

Delfin SC 1+ goals

53%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

18%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

69%

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Delfin SC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Delfin SC attack 0.43 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

49%

level

29%

Delfin SC scores more

22%

Deportivo Cuenca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff