Deportivo Coopsol 5–2 Molinos El Pirata

Deportivo Coopsol

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Molinos El Pirata

9/30/2021

Segunda División · Clausura - 11Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol54%

×Draw24%

Molinos El Pirata22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CoopsolExpected goals in this matchMolinos El Pirata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.98

Deportivo Coopsol

1.70

Molinos El Pirata

0.98

Deportivo Coopsol creates 73% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 64 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

1.02

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.32

Molinos El Pirata

0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.02

Molinos El Pirata

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Molinos El Pirata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw

78%

Deportivo Coopsol or Molinos El Pirata

76%

Draw or Molinos El Pirata

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

30%

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

51%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

24%

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

62%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

26%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

71%

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

54%

level

24%

Molinos El Pirata scores more

22%

Deportivo Coopsol at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff