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Deportivo Coopsol vs Comerciantes Unidos — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
5/19/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol47%
×Draw26%
Comerciantes Unidos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.51
Comerciantes Unidos
1.09

Deportivo Coopsol creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 53 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Comerciantes Unidos
1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Comerciantes Unidos
1.70

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
73%
Deportivo Coopsol or Comerciantes Unidos
74%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
23%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
19%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
66%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
30%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
63%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.51

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.17 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
47%
level
26%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
27%

Deportivo Coopsol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Coopsol 0–1 Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos beat Deportivo Coopsol 1-0 in Segunda División on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.