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Deportivo Capiata vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
PST
22:00
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
5/9/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Capiata50%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Iteno25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Capiata
1.62
Sportivo Iteno
1.06

Deportivo Capiata creates 53% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 63 away

creates per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.43
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.15
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Capiata ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Capiata or draw
75%
Deportivo Capiata or Sportivo Iteno
75%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
26%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
22%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
29%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
67%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Capiata at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Capiata attack 1.43 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Capiata scores more
50%
level
25%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
25%

Deportivo Capiata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Capiata face Sportivo Iteno (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with Deportivo Capiata hosting Sportivo Iteno. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Capiata host Sportivo Iteno at Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.