Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Capiata vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
PST
00:00
Atyrá
Atyrá
9/27/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Capiata45%
×Draw26%
Atyrá29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Capiata
1.49
Atyrá
1.14

Deportivo Capiata creates 31% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 62 away

creates per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.43
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.15
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Capiata ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Capiata or draw
71%
Deportivo Capiata or Atyrá
74%
Draw or Atyrá
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
22%
Atyrá wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
19%
Atyrá 1+ goals
68%
Atyrá 2+ goals
32%
Atyrá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
61%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Capiata at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Capiata attack 1.43 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Capiata scores more
45%
level
26%
Atyrá scores more
29%

Deportivo Capiata at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Capiata host Atyrá

September 27, 2020: Deportivo Capiata take on Atyrá in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Capiata host Atyrá at Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.