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Deportivo Cali W vs La Equidad W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali Wadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
La Equidad W
La Equidad W
9/4/2021Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Semi-finalsEstadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Deportivo Cali W63%
×Draw23%
La Equidad W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali W
1.75
La Equidad W
0.69

Deportivo Cali W creates 154% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 48 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W
1.93
La Equidad W
0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W
0.52
La Equidad W
1.56

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par
La Equidad W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

La Equidad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw
86%
Deportivo Cali W or La Equidad W
77%
Draw or La Equidad W
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
36%
La Equidad W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
25%
La Equidad W 1+ goals
50%
La Equidad W 2+ goals
15%
La Equidad W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
81%
La Equidad W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

La Equidad W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.56 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + La Equidad W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

La Equidad W attack 0.85 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more
63%
level
23%
La Equidad W scores more
14%

Deportivo Cali W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Cali W 2 – 0 La Equidad W

Deportivo Cali W beat La Equidad W 2-0 in Liga Femenina on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.