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Deportivo Cali vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
1/30/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Cali40%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.20
Fortaleza FC
1.03

Deportivo Cali creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.08
Fortaleza FC
1.11

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.95
Fortaleza FC
1.31

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less
Fortaleza FC+0.22scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
69%
Deportivo Cali or Fortaleza FC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
17%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
12%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
64%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
28%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
56%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fortaleza FC attack 1.11 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
40%
level
29%
Fortaleza FC scores more
31%

Deportivo Cali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Fortaleza FC

Deportivo Cali beat Fortaleza FC 2-0 in Primera A on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.