Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Binacional vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
8/7/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Deportivo Binacional53%
×Draw24%
UTC Cajamarca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.72
UTC Cajamarca
1.04

Deportivo Binacional creates 65% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 144 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.81
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.17
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
77%
Deportivo Binacional or UTC Cajamarca
76%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
29%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
51%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
25%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
65%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
28%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
70%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.72

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
53%
level
24%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
23%

Deportivo Binacional at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Binacional vs UTC Cajamarca

Deportivo Binacional beat UTC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.