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Deportivo Binacional vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
5/19/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Binacional50%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Municipal26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.77
Deportivo Municipal
1.21

Deportivo Binacional creates 46% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 102 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.81
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.17
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
74%
Deportivo Binacional or Deportivo Municipal
77%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
28%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
53%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
50%
level
23%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
26%

Deportivo Binacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Binacional 0–0 Deportivo Municipal

Deportivo Binacional and Deportivo Municipal drew 0-0 in Primera División on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.