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Deportivo Binacional vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
PST
22:00
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
8/15/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Guillermo Briceño Rosamedina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Binacional56%
×Draw23%
Carlos Stein21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.86
Carlos Stein
1.04

Deportivo Binacional creates 79% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.81
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.17
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
79%
Deportivo Binacional or Carlos Stein
77%
Draw or Carlos Stein
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
32%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
55%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
28%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
65%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
28%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
73%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
56%
level
23%
Carlos Stein scores more
21%

Deportivo Binacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Binacional face Carlos Stein (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Deportivo Binacional hosting Carlos Stein. Match starts August 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Binacional host Carlos Stein at Estadio Guillermo Briceño Rosamedina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.