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Deportivo Armenio vs Arsenal Sarandi — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
Preview
20:00
Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
7/25/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 27Armenia Stadium
36%
Arsenal Sarandi
model favours
31%33%36%

Deportivo Armenio are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
73%
under 2.5 goals
35%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Armenio31%
×Draw33%
Arsenal Sarandi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Armenio
0.86
Arsenal Sarandi
0.95

Arsenal Sarandi creates 10% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 13 away

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio
1.19
Arsenal Sarandi
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio
0.90
Arsenal Sarandi
0.54

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par
Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw
64%
Deportivo Armenio or Arsenal Sarandi
67%
Draw or Arsenal Sarandi
69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
11%
Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
6%
Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
61%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
25%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
46%
Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.19 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.86

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.00 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more
31%
level
33%
Arsenal Sarandi scores more
36%

Arsenal Sarandi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Deportivo Armenio’s matches
  • Arsenal Sarandi score first in only 33% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Armenio
DWDDW
Sarandi
WLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Armenio host Arsenal Sarandi

July 25, 2026: Deportivo Armenio take on Arsenal Sarandi in Primera B Metropolitana. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Armenio host Arsenal Sarandi at Armenia Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.