Deportivo Alavés W vs Valencia W

Deportivo Alavés W

Preview

15:00

Valencia W

8/30/2026

Primera División Femenina · Round 1Estadio Mendizorrotza

44%

Deportivo Alavés W

model favours

44%25%32%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W44%

×Draw25%

Valencia W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés WExpected goals in this matchValencia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.30

Deportivo Alavés W

1.57

Valencia W

1.30

Deportivo Alavés W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 105 away

1.23

creates per match

0.94

1.67

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.23

Valencia W

0.94

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.67

Valencia W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

Valencia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw

68%

Deportivo Alavés W or Valencia W

75%

Draw or Valencia W

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

22%

Valencia W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

21%

Valencia W 1+ goals

73%

Valencia W 2+ goals

37%

Valencia W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

58%

Valencia W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

44%

level

25%

Valencia W scores more

32%

Deportivo Alavés W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

DDDLW

W

DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff