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Deportivo Alavés W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo Alavés W
Deportivo Alavés W
Preview
16:00
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
12/13/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 14Estadio Mendizorrotza
58%
Real Madrid W
model favours
20%22%58%

Real Madrid W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W20%
×Draw22%
Real Madrid W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés W
1.07
Real Madrid W
1.98

Real Madrid W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 92 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W
1.23
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W
1.67
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw
42%
Deportivo Alavés W or Real Madrid W
78%
Draw or Real Madrid W
80%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+
7%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals
9%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
86%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
59%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)
26%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more
20%
level
22%
Real Madrid W scores more
58%

Real Madrid W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Alavés W win just 3% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DDDLW
W
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Alavés W face Real Madrid W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Deportivo Alavés W hosting Real Madrid W. Match starts December 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Alavés W host Real Madrid W at Estadio Mendizorrotza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.