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Deportivo Alavés W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo Alavés W
Deportivo Alavés W
Preview
16:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
1/17/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 16Estadio Mendizorrotza
41%
Deportivo Alavés W
model favours
41%23%36%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W41%
×Draw23%
Madrid CFF W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés W
1.68
Madrid CFF W
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W
1.23
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W
1.67
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw
64%
Deportivo Alavés W or Madrid CFF W
77%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+
21%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals
24%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
79%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
46%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)
54%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.68

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more
41%
level
23%
Madrid CFF W scores more
36%

Deportivo Alavés W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DDDLW
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Alavés W vs Madrid CFF W — Match Preview

Deportivo Alavés W face Madrid CFF W on January 17, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Alavés W host Madrid CFF W at Estadio Mendizorrotza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.