Deportivo Alavés W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W

Deportivo Alavés W

Preview

15:00

Deportivo de La Coruña W

4/4/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 25Estadio Mendizorrotza

46%

Deportivo Alavés W

model favours

46%23%31%

Deportivo Alavés W and Deportivo de La Coruña W have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

62%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W46%

×Draw23%

Deportivo de La Coruña W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo de La Coruña W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.44

Deportivo Alavés W

1.78

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.44

Deportivo Alavés W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

1.23

creates per match

1.22

1.67

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.23

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W

1.67

Deportivo de La Coruña W

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw

69%

Deportivo Alavés W or Deportivo de La Coruña W

77%

Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

83%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

53%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

26%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.78

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

46%

level

23%

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

31%

Deportivo Alavés W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

DDDLW

W

LDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff