Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Alavés W vs Athletic Club W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Deportivo Alavés W
Deportivo Alavés W
Preview
15:00
Athletic Club W
Athletic Club W
5/2/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 27Estadio Mendizorrotza
39%
Athletic Club W
model favours
36%25%39%

Athletic Club W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Alavés W36%
×Draw25%
Athletic Club W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés W
1.39
Athletic Club W
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés W
1.23
Athletic Club W
1.21

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés W
1.67
Athletic Club W
1.55

finishing

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par
Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés W ↓

Athletic Club W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés W or draw
61%
Deportivo Alavés W or Athletic Club W
75%
Draw or Athletic Club W
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+
17%
Athletic Club W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals
16%
Athletic Club W 1+ goals
76%
Athletic Club W 2+ goals
42%
Athletic Club W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)
48%
Athletic Club W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés W attack 1.23 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Alavés W scores more
36%
level
25%
Athletic Club W scores more
39%

Athletic Club W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Alavés W win just 3% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DDDLW
W
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Alavés W host Athletic Club W

May 2, 2027: Deportivo Alavés W take on Athletic Club W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Alavés W host Athletic Club W at Estadio Mendizorrotza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.