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Deportiva Minera vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Deportiva Minera64%
×Draw21%
Plus Ultra15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
2.03
Plus Ultra
0.87

Deportiva Minera creates 133% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
85%
Deportiva Minera or Plus Ultra
79%
Draw or Plus Ultra
36%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
40%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
87%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
60%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
33%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
58%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
22%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
81%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
64%
level
21%
Plus Ultra scores more
15%

Deportiva Minera at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportiva Minera 2 – 0 Plus Ultra

Deportiva Minera beat Plus Ultra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.