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Deportiva Minera vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
4 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Deportiva Minera45%
×Draw27%
Mazarrón FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.42
Mazarrón FC
1.08

Deportiva Minera creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
71%
Deportiva Minera or Mazarrón FC
73%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
55%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
22%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
76%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
41%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
17%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
66%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
29%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
61%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
45%
level
27%
Mazarrón FC scores more
29%

Deportiva Minera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportiva Minera 4 – 5 Mazarrón FC

Mazarrón FC beat Deportiva Minera 5-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.